Professor Biswanath Chakraborty of Rabindra Bharati University, a noted poll analyst, says, “By-polls to a few Assembly seats and elections to 18 civic bodies have been held since the Lok Sabha elections. Results show a vote swing of two to seven per cent against the CPI (M) in various seats and districts. On the other hand, there is a clear seven per cent swing in favour of the TMC-INC combine. According to my estimate, four per cent of these were Left Front voters, one per cent BJP voters while two per cent are either new or floating voters.” Considering the opposition unity index (OUI) and other factors, he says, “It is clear that people are in the mood for a change. So, they are not taking split in the opposition well. However, they are not ready to give a pass to the ruling Left Front. So, they may choose one of the two opposition candidates as the main contestant and vote en bloc.”
However, differences among the opposition blocks have rendered another dimension to this poll. A united opposition could have used the misrule of the Left Front government as a poll plank. In the absence of that, considerations like personality, honesty and behaviour of a candidate would come to the fore. So political issues like development and future policies have been put on the backburner.
But some of the important civic issues have taken a back seat, says Chakraborty. “The Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission has imposed the condition of repealing Urban Land Ceiling Act, which is paving the way for multi-storey apartments and the urban poor are the worst affected by this development. Slum dwellers are being evicted and some slums are being allegedly burnt down. While this is emerging as a serious civic crisis, players in the fray are silent about it. They are stressing more on the rival party’s activities and misdeeds,” In fact, issues like hike in the property and water tax, citizens’ charter, degradation of ecology and environment are being blissfully ignored during the campaign by all the parties. While the CPI (M) is stressing on Maoist violence, the TMC is hinging on its tirade on CPI (M)-led violence. TMC salvos against the INC are only confusing common voters.
There has been some understanding (read seat sharing) between local TMC and the INC leaders, ignoring the high command’s diktats. Such scenario is emerging in municipalities by the day, perhaps due to the pressure put by pro-change voters. Chakraborty readily agrees. “People want change. For this, one does not have to be a supporter of the Congress or the Trinamool, just social consciousness is enough,” he says.
“The end of the TMC-INC alliance will enable the CPI(M) to prove that the opposition is unstable and its leaders will try their best to convince people likewise. Second, some pro-change voters, disgruntled with recent developments, may keep themselves out of the poll process. And third, middle-class people with government jobs, who have got a good hike in their salaries, may opt for status quo,” he concludes. It is quite likely that voter turnout will be considerably lower. The overall developments definitely do not augur well for the opposition.
However, differences among the opposition blocks have rendered another dimension to this poll. A united opposition could have used the misrule of the Left Front government as a poll plank. In the absence of that, considerations like personality, honesty and behaviour of a candidate would come to the fore. So political issues like development and future policies have been put on the backburner.
But some of the important civic issues have taken a back seat, says Chakraborty. “The Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission has imposed the condition of repealing Urban Land Ceiling Act, which is paving the way for multi-storey apartments and the urban poor are the worst affected by this development. Slum dwellers are being evicted and some slums are being allegedly burnt down. While this is emerging as a serious civic crisis, players in the fray are silent about it. They are stressing more on the rival party’s activities and misdeeds,” In fact, issues like hike in the property and water tax, citizens’ charter, degradation of ecology and environment are being blissfully ignored during the campaign by all the parties. While the CPI (M) is stressing on Maoist violence, the TMC is hinging on its tirade on CPI (M)-led violence. TMC salvos against the INC are only confusing common voters.
There has been some understanding (read seat sharing) between local TMC and the INC leaders, ignoring the high command’s diktats. Such scenario is emerging in municipalities by the day, perhaps due to the pressure put by pro-change voters. Chakraborty readily agrees. “People want change. For this, one does not have to be a supporter of the Congress or the Trinamool, just social consciousness is enough,” he says.
“The end of the TMC-INC alliance will enable the CPI(M) to prove that the opposition is unstable and its leaders will try their best to convince people likewise. Second, some pro-change voters, disgruntled with recent developments, may keep themselves out of the poll process. And third, middle-class people with government jobs, who have got a good hike in their salaries, may opt for status quo,” he concludes. It is quite likely that voter turnout will be considerably lower. The overall developments definitely do not augur well for the opposition.
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