Thursday, December 13, 2007

Pre- Clinton methodology

To top it all, consider 2.6%, 2.0%, 2.5%, 0.6% & 1.9% – a string of five quarters of below 3% growth, which has only happened 12 other times in the past 60 years. One can go on and on with statistics. But, the figures would appear to be even more disappointing considering the fact that all official indicators by the Federal Reserve, like employment, inflation et al run counter to the day to day experience of a common man! Take inflation for that matter, John Williams, an economist & specialist in government economic reporting calculates the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on the pre- Clinton methodology and according to the methodology of the 1980s (no hedonic adjustments for quality improvements in manufactured goods & different weighting of the CPI basket of goods & services). According to him, adjusted to pre-Clinton Era methodologies, annual inflation was about 6.2%, in March and reset to the methodology of 1980, the SGS Alternate Consumer Inflation Measure rose to 10.2% in March (see chart to your right). US is perhaps already in recession, sans an honest admission by the Fed. But one must give them due credit for putting up a brave face, backed by a barrage of ‘cooked up’ statistics

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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