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John Kerry and Chuck Hagel are likely to bring fresh perspective in their respective departments. And that will be the best thing to happen to the United States in decades, says Saurabh Kumar ShahiIn the recent political history of the United States of America, none of the administrations have been so dependent on its Secretaries of State and Defense for its future course as President Obama's administration is dependent on John Kerry and Chuck Hagel. And as things stand, it won't be an exaggeration to say that how history will remember President Obama will largely depend on how these two perform, especially so after a rather dispirited and lackluster first term by the president.
The very basis of both the appointments (Chuck Hagel's appointment remains yet to be approved by the Senate as this story goes to print) is that President Obama in his second term really wants to clear a few messes and more importantly, he wants to do it without venturing into the world of intervention. And hence, both the names.
Let's come to John Kerry first. As the new Secretary of State, he is expected to bring sweeping changes as far as nuances in the foreign policy is concerned. He has a fantastic personal relation with the president and has been sent by him far and wide to solve foreign policy cauldrons. And, most of all, he comes without any excess baggage.
“The area in which Kerry may be able to have the greatest impact is redefining the meaning of national security for Americans. He recognises that the main threats to the United States no longer come from foreign armies or what George W Bush liked to call 'evil-doers'. His most encouraging statements are those that suggest he recognises the enormous security challenges posed by climate change, global energy politics and economic troubles at home,” says Stephen Kinzer, celebrated US diplomat and foreign policy expert.
When Obama dropped Susan Rice from the scheme of things following protests, he did himself a favour. Rice was hardly someone who could have intervened either in the Middle East peace process or in the Af-Pak cauldron without being judgmental. In fact, she was proudly described by Zionists of all stripes as “Israel's Gladiator in the UN”. With that kind of reputation, she would have proved a non-starter.
Quite opposed to that, Kerry believes in the diplomatic vision of negotiations and keeps threats as the last resort. So, if you are expecting another round of threats warning Iran of “obliteration” a la Hillary Clinton, you would be disappointed. It is not for nothing that his appointment was welcomed by Tehran.
“We hope that he (John Kerry), given his personal characteristics, will be able to at least help revise part of the US government’s approaches and anti-Iran policies and will help reduce the loss of lives and financial losses inflicted on regional nations and the people of the United States caused by the US foreign policy,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told the Fars News Agency.
Also, unlike most of the top bureaucrats and appointees in the State Department, John Kerry shares an excellent rapport with the top Pakistani leadership, both in the civil as well as military structure. His insistence on involving Pakistan in the Afghanistan solution, rather than bypassing it, will ensure that the countries sit together and work out a deal rather than play out through propaganda channels. He in fact went on record to say that the US did not give Pakistan its due for providing intelligence about Osama Bin Laden.
It is therefore expected that in coming months, a new form of synergy will develop between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US to deal with the situation following the pull-out in 2014.
If Kerry is a tough nut, Hagel is even tougher. Notwithstanding his rather tepid performance during his confirmation hearing, Hagel is known for his plain-speaking. And that is why his confirmation process was a baptism by fire. However, he has some clear ideas on how the US should behave militarily and he'll speak his mind when he is confirmed.
Considering rising deficit, it is expected that he will recommend (and see it through) some cuts on the Defence front. This might include recommendations to wrap up some of the military bases, curtailing the Air-craft Carrier Strike Groups and forgetting intervention as an option on the table.
On other matters, including relations with Russia, Hagel's views are closer to those of President Obama than the Republican camp where he previously belonged.
It is also expected that jointly, Kerry and Hagel will craft a policy that does not revolve around Israel and keeps the US interest on the top. The greatest harm that the US did to itself in the last decade or so was that it did not put any effort into making nations realise that its interests might match those of Israel's but they are not joint at the hip. That needs to change and bot Kerry and Hagel know that. It can be started by inviting Iran for direct talks and rolling back illegal unilateral sanctions that are based more on Israeli pressure than any tangible evidence that Iran has a clandestine military nuclear program.
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